Who are the AFCON 2025 favorites? Analysis of odds, FIFA rankings, squads: Morocco as top favorite ahead of Senegal, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria.
Who Will Lift the Trophy on January 18, 2026?
The CAF TotalEnergies AFCON 2025 will be held in Morocco from December 21, 2025 to January 18, 2026, bringing together 24 teams across 6 host cities (Rabat, Casablanca, Tangier, Marrakech, Fez, Agadir) and 9 state-of-the-art stadiums. With ticket demand described as "unprecedented" by CAF and a free visa system via the YALLA app for supporters, this edition promises to be historic.
But who are the top favorites for AFCON 2025? Sports analysts, experts, and FIFA rankings converge on one conclusion: Morocco, the host nation, is the overwhelming favorite, followed by Senegal, Egypt, Algeria, and Nigeria.
What Expert Predictions Say: Morocco Leads the Pack
All major sports analysis platforms agree: Morocco is the clear favorite for AFCON 2025.
Expert Predictions Comparison
| Source | Morocco | Senegal | Egypt | Algeria | Nigeria | Ivory Coast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platform A | 3.80 | 7.30 | 6.80 | 7.10 | ~10 | ~10 |
| Platform B | 3.45 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| Platform C | 4.50 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 9.00 | ~10 | 7.50 |
| Platform D | 3.75 | ~7 | ~7 | ~8 | ~10 | ~10 |
*Note: The names of the betting platforms have been intentionally anonymized to comply with Moroccan regulations and avoid any direct promotion of restricted services.*
Analysis
Regardless of the platform, Morocco consistently has the highest win probability ratings (reflected in values between 3.45 and 4.50), making them the experts' number one favorite. Senegal, Egypt, and Algeria follow with ratings between 5.50 and 9.00, forming the challengers' group.
Nigeria and Ivory Coast (defending AFCON 2023 champions) are considered serious outsiders, with ratings around 10.00 to 13.00.
FIFA/CAF Rankings: Sporting Hierarchy Confirms the Trend
Top 10 CAF (November 2025)
| CAF Rank | Team | FIFA World Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 11th |
| 2 | Senegal | 19th |
| 3 | Egypt | 34th |
| 4 | Algeria | ~37th |
| 5 | Nigeria | ~40th |
| 6 | Ivory Coast | ~42nd |
| 7 | Tunisia | ~45th |
| 8 | Mali | ~47th |
| 9 | South Africa | ~50th |
| 10 | Cameroon | ~52nd |
What This Means
Morocco is 1st in CAF rankings and 11th worldwide, far ahead of the rest of the continent. They are currently the best African nation according to FIFA, fully justifying their favorite status.
Senegal (2nd CAF, 19th worldwide) and Egypt (3rd CAF, 34th worldwide) complete the African podium and are logically the two main threats to Morocco.
Morocco: The Overwhelming Favorite on Home Soil
Why Morocco Is the Favorite
Morocco has all the assets to win their second AFCON (after 1976):
1. Home Advantage
Analysts explicitly factor this "home effect" into their predictions, considering Morocco will have a permanent 12th man behind them.
2. Best African Nation (FIFA Rankings)
With their 11th world ranking, Morocco is:
This status reflects the Atlas Lions' recent performances:
3. Golden Generation & Continuity
The current Moroccan squad is considered a "golden generation":
Defense:
Midfield:
Attack:
Coach Walid Regragui, architect of the World Cup 2022 epic run, ensures tactical and mental continuity.
Our Verdict
Morocco is the logical favorite: host nation, best African FIFA nation, golden generation, continuity with Regragui. Expert ratings between 3.45 and 4.50 reflect this dominance.
Senegal: The Experienced Armada
Why Senegal Can Win
Senegal is Morocco's main challenger with solid arguments:
1. Recent Achievements
The Lions of Teranga have proven they know how to win big tournaments.
2. Star-Studded Squad
Goalkeeper:
Defense:
Midfield:
Attack:
3. Ability to Beat Top Teams
Sports analysts recall a 3-1 victory against England in a friendly, used as an example of Senegal's ability to beat top European teams.
Our Verdict
Recent champions, star-studded squad, big-game experience: Senegal has everything to overthrow Morocco. But the home advantage will be difficult to counter. Expert ratings between 5.50 and 7.30 reflect this challenge.
Egypt: Seven-Time Champions, Still Capable of Upsetting the Hierarchy?
Why Egypt Can Surprise
Egypt is the most decorated nation in AFCON history with 7 titles (absolute record):
But the last title dates back to 2010, 15 years ago.
1. Mohamed Salah, Still at the Top
The Liverpool striker remains one of the world's best players:
2. New Reinforcements
Analysts cite Omar Marmoush (Eintracht Frankfurt) as a major reinforcement:
Our Verdict
Seven-time champions, Mohamed Salah, new talents: Egypt can still upset the hierarchy. But they'll have to go through Morocco, Senegal, or Algeria. Expert ratings between 6.00 and 7.00 reflect this status as a credible outsider but not favorite.
Serious Outsiders Not to Underestimate
Algeria – Former Champions (2019)
Expert Rating: 7.00 to 9.00
Arguments:
Verdict: Capable of anything, but will depend on Mahrez's form and squad cohesion.
Ivory Coast – Defending AFCON 2023 Champions
Expert Rating: 7.50 to 13.00
Arguments:
Verdict: Serious outsider, but playing away is a disadvantage.
Nigeria – Super Eagles
Expert Rating: 10.00 to 11.00
Arguments:
Verdict: If Osimhen is in form, Nigeria can beat anyone.
Mali, Tunisia, South Africa...
Tom Saintfiet (experienced Belgian coach in Africa) estimates that a dozen countries can dream of the title, even if his favorites remain Morocco, Algeria, Nigeria, and Senegal.
Home AFCON 2025: Asset or Pressure for Morocco?
Recent History of Host Nations at AFCON
| Year | Host | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ivory Coast | Champions ✅ |
| 2021 | Cameroon | Third place |
| 2019 | Egypt | Finalists |
| 2017 | Gabon | Quarter-finals |
Playing at home is clearly a statistical advantage: in the last 4 editions, the host nation has reached at least the quarter-finals, with one title (Ivory Coast 2023) and one final (Egypt 2019).
Can Morocco Handle the Pressure?
Morocco has already proven their ability to handle big occasions with the World Cup 2022 semi-final. Walid Regragui and his staff have the experience to transform this pressure into motivation.
Conclusion: Morocco Clear Favorite, But Watch the Challengers
The numbers speak for themselves:
But watch the challengers:
AFCON 2025 promises to be unpredictable, but Morocco has all the assets to lift the trophy on January 18, 2026 in their own stadium.
Dima Maghrib! 🇲🇦🏆
*Last Updated: November 29, 2025*
In this article
- What Expert Predictions Say: Morocco Leads the Pack
- FIFA/CAF Rankings: Sporting Hierarchy Confirms the Trend
- Morocco: The Overwhelming Favorite on Home Soil
- Senegal: The Experienced Armada
- Egypt: Seven-Time Champions, Still Capable of Upsetting the Hierarchy?
- Serious Outsiders Not to Underestimate
- Home AFCON 2025: Asset or Pressure for Morocco?
- Conclusion: Morocco Clear Favorite, But Watch the Challengers
Written by
Morocco Stadiums Team
AFCON 2025 Guide